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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Map 1 Winner 77% O/U 3.5 Games 69% Match Winner 56% Map 2 Winner 52% Volume: $278K Liquidity: $366K Closes: 12 Jul 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner77%
O/U 3.5 Games69%
Match Winner56%
Map 2 Winner52%
Map 4 Winner50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Winner43%
O/U 4.5 Games40%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.535%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)28%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)25%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 77% YES probability for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thie…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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