Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs EDward Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs EDward Gaming (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs EDward Gaming (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-9.5) vs EDward Gaming (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs EDward Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 35.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: edward gaming vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup group a stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between EDward Gaming and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 2 at 7:00AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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