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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 100% Volume: $179K Liquidity: $104K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.575%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.575%
Match Winner67%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.566%
Map 1 Winner60%
Map 2 Winner58%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.557%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.554%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.547%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.537%
Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5)25%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5)0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr los vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This marke…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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