Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 80% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 46% |
| Map 2 Winner | 34% |
| Match Winner | 22% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs MIBR LOS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs MIBR LOS (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs MIBR LOS (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs MIBR LOS (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: mibr los vs team heretics (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between MIBR LOS and Team Heretics in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Valorant: MIBR LOS vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports … on Kalshi Alternative UK
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