Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 71% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 71% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 71% |
| Match Winner | 66% |
| Map 1 Winner | 62% |
| Map 2 Winner | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 60% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 39% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Joblife (+3.5) | 38% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Joblife (+1.5) | 36% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 71% probability to valorant: natus vincere vs joblife (bo3) - vct emea play-ins. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between Natus Vincere and Joblife in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 6 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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