Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-4.5) vs G2 Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-5.5) vs G2 Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-8.5) vs XLG Gaming (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: xlg gaming vs g2 esports (bo3) - esports world cup group c. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between XLG Gaming and G2 Esports in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "XLG …
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: XLG Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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