Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open: jessica pegula vs magdalena frech. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Magdalena Frech in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jess…
Methodology
We read Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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