Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-nautical-mile chokepoint between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways. Whether non-regional naval powers will conduct warship transits through it by mid-2026 depends on geopolitical temperature, freedom-of-navigation doctrine enforcement, and Iranian tolerance thresholds. The current 5% implied probability reflects a market view that such transits remain unlikely within the settlement window, though the definition's breadth—including military support vessels—means even modest naval operations could trigger resolution.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits occur sporadically rather than routinely. The United States Navy has conducted freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait multiple times since 2019, whilst European navies (French, British) have undertaken occasional passages. However, each transit carries diplomatic risk and typically occurs only when strategic necessity or explicit policy shifts justify the friction. The 2022 UK carrier strike group transit and subsequent US carrier operations demonstrate that such movements remain exceptional rather than scheduled events. Kalshi's decimal-odds format (currently around 1.05) versus Polymarket's percentage display may obscure how thin this probability truly is—traders on Betfair and Smarkets show similar scepticism, with lay odds reflecting confidence in the "No" outcome.

Catalysts to monitor include Iranian nuclear negotiations, regional escalation cycles, and announced naval deployments. Reuters reported in January 2025 that US military posture reviews could reshape Middle East presence, though no formal warship transit schedule has been published. Traders should track US Department of Defense announcements and UK Foreign Office statements on freedom-of-navigation operations, as these typically precede actual transits by weeks.

Methodology

This page compares Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.