Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic must release Claude 5 as a publicly accessible product—not a closed beta or private trial—by the end of 2025 for this market to settle Yes. The current 0% implied probability reflects trader scepticism that a major model iteration will reach general availability within roughly twelve months from now, given typical development and safety-testing timelines in the sector.

Anthropic's release cadence offers the primary historical anchor. Claude 3 arrived in March 2024 across three capability tiers (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus), with public access via web interface and API from launch. The company released Claude 3.5 Sonnet in June 2024, then Claude 3.5 Haiku in November 2024—suggesting a six-to-five-month interval between major numbered releases. However, jumping from 3.5 to a full version 5 typically signals architectural or capability shifts requiring longer validation periods. Competitors' timelines—OpenAI's GPT-4 to GPT-4 Turbo took nine months; Gemini 1.0 to 2.0 took roughly fourteen—suggest traders are pricing in extended development for a major version bump.

Traders monitoring this market should track Anthropic's official announcements, research publication schedules, and any public statements about Claude 5 timelines from CEO Dario Amodei or the research team. Kalshi's fee structure (0.2% maker, 2% taker) and decimal-odds display differ markedly from Polymarket's 2% flat fee and percentage format; on a 0% book, fee impact matters less than on tighter spreads. Settlement hinges on Anthropic's own public declaration of general availability—press releases or blog posts will be the decisive evidence, not third-party reporting.

Methodology

We read Claude 5 released by…? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.