Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bautista Agut, the Spanish veteran ranked around 15th globally, faces American prospect Nakashima in the opening rounds of Roland Garros 2026. The match was originally scheduled for 24 May at 5:00 AM ET, placing it in the early-morning slot typical of the tournament's outer courts. Settlement closes 31 May, allowing a seven-day window for completion before resolution triggers the tie-break clause.

The 0% implied probability across major platforms reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal. Bautista Agut has won two ATP titles on clay and reached the US Open semi-final, but his ranking trajectory has stalled; Nakashima, meanwhile, broke into the top 20 in 2023 and has shown improvement on slower surfaces, though clay remains his weakest terrain. Historical precedent suggests markets undervalue American players in European clay tournaments, particularly when they face established European competitors. Kalshi's KYC requirements and Betfair's decimal-odds display may appeal differently to traders comparing risk profiles here—Polymarket's lower fee structure (typically 2% vs Kalshi's variable settlement fees) can shift expected value on tight matches.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any weather delays affecting the May schedule. Injury reports from either player's warm-up tournaments in late April will carry weight; Nakashima's recent form on clay courts and any ranking shifts before the draw freeze are material catalysts. Court assignment and surface conditions on match day will influence in-play dynamics, though pre-match settlement depends on the binary outcome alone.

Methodology

This page compares Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.