Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, converted to Celsius. This is a straightforward meteorological outcome with no discretionary interpretation—the station's instruments will record a single maximum temperature, and the market resolves accordingly.

Ankara's May climate shows consistent patterns across decades. Historical data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates that late May temperatures in the capital typically peak between 28°C and 32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or heavily concentrated in a single outcome band. On Kalshi, such sparse liquidity often reflects low trading volume rather than genuine consensus; Polymarket's decimal odds format can obscure similarly thin markets. Betfair and Smarkets typically show tighter spreads on weather markets with established betting histories, though Ankara's May temperature has less commercial interest than major-city forecasts. The absence of meaningful probability distribution here indicates an immature market awaiting price discovery.

Weather forecasts for late May 2026 remain unreliable beyond two weeks, limiting catalyst-driven trading. Seasonal patterns favour warmer outcomes—late May sits at the threshold of Ankara's summer heat—but no specific meteorological event (monsoon shifts, blocking highs, or cold fronts) is currently scheduled to disrupt typical conditions. Traders should monitor early-May weather patterns as a proxy for late-May trajectory, though atmospheric persistence at this timescale remains weak. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, requiring same-day confirmation from Wunderground's historical records.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.