Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is in its warm season in mid-June, when historical climate data puts average daytime highs around the high-20s Celsius and the hottest month arrives later in the summer. That matters because this market resolves on the *single highest reading* for 20 June at the airport station, not the daily mean, so traders are really pricing the chance of an above-normal spike rather than ordinary warmth.[4][6]

Comparable Chengdu temperature markets on the same platform have recently sat overwhelmingly in the low-temperature bands: a June 20 market at 27°C showed **No 99%**, while a June 11 market at 30°C existed at the far warmer end of the range, implying the market has been treating the upper-20s as the practical centre of gravity and 30°C as a tail outcome.[1] On a platform-comparison basis, Polymarket and Kalshi usually express this as implied probability, while Betfair and Smarkets quote decimal odds, which can make small changes in a weather range easier to compare against the exchange margin and fees rather than a simple yes/no price.

The main catalyst is the intraday forecast path into the airport station: AccuWeather’s June outlook for Chengdu Shuangliu points to daily highs broadly in the low-to-mid 30s°C on some dates and the high-20s on others, so a trader will watch whether the local forecast for 20 June drifts towards the upper end of that envelope or stays nearer the climatological norm.[2] The key dependency is the airport’s actual METAR-based reading at Chengdu Shuangliu, which is the settlement source, so late-day heat, cloud cover, and any precipitation timing matter more than city-wide averages.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.