Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, Chongqing will experience its peak daily temperature at the Jiangbei International Airport Station, a metric that determines the outcome of a weather-based prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to expectations of extreme heat typical for this period. Historical data confirms Chongqing’s reputation as one of China’s hottest cities, with 149 days since 1951 recording maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher[4]. The hot season spans from 20 June to 9 September, averaging daily highs above 85°F (29.4°C)[2], and the city’s record high reached 43.2°C in August 2022[7]. Comparable cases, such as the June 21 event where a subtropical ridge pushed temperatures toward 31–32°C, frame how to interpret today’s near-zero probability[5].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s movement over the Sichuan Basin, as its intensity directly influences peak temperatures. Recent forecasts indicate this ridge may drive Chongqing’s peak toward 31°C or 32°C, aligning with seasonal patterns[5]. Key catalysts include official weather announcements from China’s Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the market’s resolution source. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair diverge significantly on this market: Polymarket uses decimal odds and minimal KYC, while Kalshi employs implied probabilities and strict US KYC, and Betfair offers fee structures that vary by liquidity[1]. These differences affect how traders assess risk and liquidity, particularly when the implied probability is near zero. Understanding these platform-specific mechanics is essential for accurate positioning in volatile weather markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.