Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any “yes” result. This event hinges on real-world weather dynamics in a subtropical city known for extreme heat, humidity, and frequent thunderstorms during early summer.

Historically, Guangzhou’s June temperatures average between 25°C and 32°C, with the highest ever recorded reaching 36.6°C [1][2]. Recent data shows May 2026 was the hottest in history, peaking at 36.3°C amid continuous sunny days [4]. Such patterns suggest that while extreme heat is possible, the current 0% implied probability may reflect market caution rather than climatic certainty. Traders comparing platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair should note that Polymarket uses decimal odds while Kalshi and Betfair rely on implied probability, and fee structures and KYC requirements diverge significantly across these books.

Key catalysts include upcoming typhoon forecasts and subtropical high-pressure shifts, which could suppress or amplify temperatures. Recent reports from People’s Daily highlight Guangzhou’s exposure to typhoons and heavy downpours in June, factors that may lower peak temperatures [1][4]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily updates for the Baiyun station and watch for official meteorological announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre, as these will directly influence settlement outcomes [7]. Platform differences in data latency and resolution clarity may also affect how quickly odds adjust across markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.