Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles on that single data point, published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the meteorological day closes. The settlement window extends to midday UTC on that date, allowing for any final Observatory updates before resolution locks.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28–33°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during heat waves. Historical June maxima cluster around 31–32°C; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on which temperature bracket will be offered. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi have shown divergent liquidity patterns: Kalshi's decimal-odds format and tighter KYC requirements often concentrate volume on markets with US-centric settlement sources, whilst Polymarket's implied-probability display and broader geographic reach have historically attracted more international weather speculation. Smarkets and Betfair's commission structures (typically 2–5% versus Kalshi's flat fee model) influence whether traders arbitrage across platforms once ranges are finalised.

The Hong Kong Meteorological Society publishes seasonal forecasts in May; the 2026 outlook will shape early positioning. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them. Traders should monitor the Observatory's ten-day forecast issued around 1 June, as this typically signals whether conditions favour above or below-median maxima for the settlement date.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.