Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on official data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and station, measured in Fahrenheit. This market type—temperature-range resolution—appears across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair, though with notably different odds presentation: Polymarket displays decimal odds whilst Kalshi uses American odds format, and both charge taker fees (Polymarket 2%, Kalshi variable by contract) that compress implied probabilities differently depending on which range trades most actively.

July temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78°F and 88°F, with extreme heat days (90°F+) occurring roughly once every three to four years during mid-summer. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be published or treating the market as illiquid pending clearer definition of temperature bands. Comparable July weather markets on Smarkets and Betfair have shown tighter spreads once ranges are crystallised, partly because UK-based platforms attract weather-hedging activity from aviation and logistics firms monitoring New York operations.

The National Weather Service's seasonal forecasts, typically released in June, will inform medium-term positioning. Traders monitoring the Atlantic hurricane season outlook and any El Niño or La Niña signals should track NOAA announcements, as these influence broader North American temperature patterns. Real-time catalysts include any major heat dome formation in late June, which would shift probabilities materially across all platforms within days of 19 July.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 19? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.