Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak heat for 20 July 2026, with the highest temperature settling in the 82–83°F range. This outcome aligns with typical midsummer conditions for the region, where July highs frequently climb into the low 80s despite occasional variability from coastal breezes or urban heat retention.

Historical July data for NYC shows that temperatures below 70°F are rare, occurring in less than 5% of years, while extremes above 90°F happen roughly once every three to four years [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for “YES” on any lower range reflects this baseline, mirroring how Polymarket’s decimal odds (100% for 82–83°F) diverge from Kalshi’s implied probability format, which often compresses extreme certainties. Kalshi and Betfair also apply different fee structures and KYC thresholds, meaning liquidity and price efficiency on this weather event may vary significantly across platforms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily high-temperature forecasts for the NYC metro area and Wunderground’s real-time station logs, which serve as the official resolution source. While no specific announcements are pending, seasonal climate models from NOAA suggest a slight warming trend for July 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures in the 80s. On Smarkets, where betting is commission-based rather than fee-per-trade, the implied probability for this range may appear marginally lower than on Polymarket, reflecting structural differences in how books price certainty.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.