Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at the airport's official station, with data accessible through Weather Underground's historical archive. Resolution depends on a single daily maximum reading in Fahrenheit, making this a straightforward factual outcome rather than a forecast requiring interpretation.

New York City's June temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme highs above 90°F occurring in roughly one year per decade during early June. The 0% crowd probability across major platforms suggests traders are either avoiding this market entirely or treating it as a placeholder pending closer settlement. Kalshi and Polymarket show markedly different liquidity profiles on weather contracts—Kalshi's regulatory framework in the US permits tighter spreads on meteorological events, whilst Polymarket's offshore structure attracts larger position sizes but with higher fee drag on small trades. Betfair's decimal odds format on equivalent weather markets often reveals sharper pricing than implied probabilities displayed on US-regulated venues, a discrepancy worth monitoring as June approaches.

Catalysts include the National Weather Service's seasonal outlook updates, typically released monthly, which flag whether atmospheric patterns favour above or below-normal temperatures for the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and any early tropical systems could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day forecasts starting in early June, which become actionable roughly two weeks before settlement.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.