Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on a single data point from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or methodology. The 100% implied probability reflects the certainty that a temperature will be recorded; the actual range outcome remains open.

New York's early-to-mid June climate typically produces highs between 75–85°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical June 12 data at LaGuardia shows variability: the station has recorded highs ranging from 68°F to 89°F on this calendar date across recent decades. This spread illustrates why weather markets at this granularity attract traders with regional climate expertise. Kalshi's weather contracts often attract US-based participants with local knowledge, whilst Polymarket's broader international audience may rely more heavily on seasonal averages. Betfair's decimal-odds format and Smarkets' fractional pricing both accommodate the same underlying uncertainty, though fee structures and liquidity depth differ materially across platforms for niche weather outcomes.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's 10-day forecast as June 12 approaches; atmospheric patterns locked in by early June typically determine whether subtropical air masses reach the Northeast. Recent years have seen increased frequency of early-season heat events, though 2026 forecasting remains speculative at present. Platform-specific considerations: Kalshi requires US residency and operates under CFTC oversight, potentially affecting order-book depth; Polymarket's international accessibility may fragment liquidity across geographic cohorts with different weather expectations.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.