Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, a date that historically sees midsummer heat but is currently priced with zero probability for extremes above 86°F. This 0% YES implies the market expects a cool, unseasonal day, yet recent data from the preceding day, 21 June, shows a scorching heatwave with Central Park hitting 102°F, the hottest June day since records began [4]. Historical June averages for LaGuardia range from 75°F to 88°F [7], and the actual high on 22 June 2026 was recorded at just 72°F [10], significantly below the historic average of 83.2°F. This divergence between the extreme heat of 21 June and the cool 72°F on 22 June frames the current probability: traders are betting on a rapid cooling trend rather than sustained heat, a pattern that contradicts the 100% probability assigned to 84–85°F on the 21st [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s excessive heat warnings, which covered almost every county in the Northeast during the 21 June surge, and watch for any forecast adjustments indicating a break in the humidity [4]. The key dependency is the wind pattern; light winds offered little relief on 21 June, allowing maximum daytime heating, but a shift to stronger coastal winds could explain the sudden drop to 72°F on 22 June [4]. When comparing platforms, Polymarket assigns a 97% probability to the 72–73°F range [1], whereas Kalshi and Betfair often use decimal odds rather than implied probability, creating a different liquidity structure for such binary outcomes. Fee structures also diverge: Polymarket’s zero-fee model contrasts with Kalshi’s 1% cap on winnings, while Betfair’s commission-based model (typically 2–5%) affects the effective payout for this specific temperature range. KYC reach further separates these books, with Polymarket requiring minimal verification compared to Kalshi’s strict US-only identity checks, limiting access for international traders researching this weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.