Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 June 2026, New York City is expected to reach a peak temperature near 82–85°F at LaGuardia Airport, with the market heavily favouring the 82–83°F range. This real-world forecast contrasts sharply with the 0% implied probability for the highest temperature outcome on some platforms, highlighting divergent pricing between exchanges. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance to 82–83°F, while Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets may price the same event using decimal odds rather than implied probability, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders comparing book structures. Fee differences and KYC requirements further separate these platforms, with some demanding identity verification while others remain more accessible to international users.

Historical data from early June 2026 shows LaGuardia recorded a maximum of 74–75°F on 8 June, with June averages typically ranging from 77°F to 92°F. The average high for June sits near 79°F, yet recent National Weather Service models point to warmer conditions approaching 83°F by mid-month. Traders should monitor upcoming heat advisories and the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports, which often update maximum temperatures within hours of observation. A recent forecast from AccuWeather confirms daily highs climbing toward 92°F in late June, suggesting the 82–83°F range is plausible but not guaranteed.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s daily climatological updates and any heatwave announcements from local authorities. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, so traders must watch for real-time temperature readings from Weather Underground, the official resolution source. Divergence between platforms may persist if one exchange updates odds faster than others, particularly where decimal odds are used versus implied probability. Fee structures and KYC reach remain critical differentiators for traders choosing between Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets when positioning on this weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.