Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City recorded a maximum temperature of 71°F, well below the seasonal average of 88°F and the historical record of 101°F[3][7]. This cool outcome, driven by a cold front that brought thunderstorms and cooler air across the Northeast the previous night, explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for any high-temperature range above 79°F[4]. The divergence between platforms is stark: while Kalshi lists decimal odds reflecting this near-zero chance, Polymarket and Betfair express the same view as an implied probability, with fee structures varying from 0% on Robinhood to 2% on Smarkets, and KYC requirements ranging from strict identity verification on Kalshi to minimal checks on Polymarket[1][5].

Historical June data shows daily highs typically span 77°F to 95°F, with the average high at 88°F, making the 71°F reading an outlier rather than a trend[3]. Traders should monitor upcoming National Weather Service climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will confirm whether this cool spell persists or if temperatures surge back toward the low 90s as forecasted for the following week[4][6]. The key catalyst is the timing of the next cold front; if it delays, humidity levels will rise, potentially pushing temperatures 10–15 degrees above normal by Sunday, as seen in recent forecasts[4]. Unlike Robinhood’s 24-hour trading window, Kalshi closes at 3:15 AM ET, creating a liquidity gap that may delay price adjustments to new weather data[1].

No moralising is needed on whether to trade; the facts show a clear mismatch between current conditions and historical norms, with platforms diverging on how they price this risk. The settlement window ends 2026-06-26T12:00:00Z, and Wunderground will provide the official resolution data, ensuring transparency across all books[7]. Traders comparing Polymarket’s fee-free model against Kalshi’s KYC-heavy approach should note that the latter’s stricter verification may limit access for some, while the former’s lower barriers could attract more speculative volume[1][5]. The 0% probability is not a prediction of impossibility but a reflection of the current cool anomaly, with future data likely to shift odds if temperatures rebound.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.