Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and reported in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must rely on historical weather data and seasonal patterns rather than real-time forecasts closer to the event. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity across competing platforms.

June temperatures in Seoul typically range from 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early summer heat waves. Historical data from 2015–2023 shows that mid-June highs at Incheon rarely exceed 32°C, though the 2018 heat event pushed readings to 34°C. This baseline matters because Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair structure their temperature bands differently: Polymarket uses decimal odds and tighter resolution criteria, whilst Kalshi's categorical approach and lower fees (typically 2–5% versus Polymarket's 2% plus withdrawal charges) may attract different trader cohorts. Smarkets' fractional odds framework appeals to European traders familiar with traditional bookmaking conventions, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if the same market resolves across multiple platforms.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which typically predict June temperature anomalies two to four weeks ahead. El Niño or La Niña patterns active in early 2026 will influence whether Seoul experiences above or below-average heat. The absence of major sporting events or policy announcements scheduled for that date means weather patterns alone will drive outcomes, making historical volatility analysis and ensemble forecast models the primary analytical tools available before settlement.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.