Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full daily maximum must be captured before resolution. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no ambiguity in the underlying event itself, though the 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or thin liquidity across available platforms.

Seoul experiences early monsoon conditions by mid-June, with average highs around 26–28°C and occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. Historical June records at Incheon show peaks of 33–34°C during anomalous warm spells, though such extremes occur in roughly one in five years. The current probability distribution across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets likely reflects differing user bases and fee structures—Kalshi's 2% taker fee and stricter KYC requirements typically attract US-focused traders, whilst Betfair's decimal odds format appeals to European punters more familiar with traditional bookmaking. Polymarket's lower fees (1% taker) may concentrate liquidity on specific temperature bands, creating wider spreads elsewhere.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can suppress temperatures or trigger sudden warming. Recent patterns from 2023–2025 suggest late spring warming has been moderate; the Korea Herald and local weather services will publish seasonal outlooks by late May. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull, making platform choice less critical than usual—the resolution is deterministic once the date passes.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.