Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground historical data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range across South Korea's primary weather observation point before the midday cutoff.

June in Seoul typically sees mean daily highs between 26–28°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability currently reflected across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity in this particular market. Kalshi's decimal odds framework and Polymarket's implied probability display would diverge noticeably here; a market showing 0% on one platform often reflects sparse order books rather than genuine certainty. Betfair and Smarkets, which operate under UK gambling regulation with different KYC requirements, may show alternative pricing if they've listed comparable Seoul weather contracts, though direct June 13 specificity is rare across traditional betting exchanges.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, particularly any alerts for unseasonable heat or monsoon onset timing, which can shift daily highs by 5–10°C. The East Asian summer monsoon typically begins in late May or early June, which would suppress temperatures; conversely, a delayed monsoon arrival could allow high-pressure systems to dominate. Fee structures vary significantly—Kalshi charges per contract whilst Polymarket takes a 2% settlement fee—making the margin between resolution bands material for small-stake positions on weather markets with tight spreads.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.