Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The practical question is how hot Seoul gets at the airport station by the market’s noon UTC close, not just the city’s headline temperature. June highs in Seoul typically sit in the upper 20s °C, with WeatherSpark showing average daily highs rising from about 25°C to 27°C through the month and only rarely exceeding 31°C, while recent history has produced isolated hotter days, including 2026-06-19 at 91°F/32.8°C in Seoul data from Visual Crossing.[2][5]

That is why a **0% YES** crowd price is less a statement about impossibility than about how narrowly the market window is framed: settlement depends on the highest temperature recorded on 22 June at Incheon Intl Airport Station, and airport stations can differ from central Seoul readings because of sea influence, local winds, and timing. For comparison, Polymarket-style pricing is usually read as implied probability, whereas Kalshi and Betfair often expose prices in decimal/contract terms, and Smarkets typically shows a commission-adjusted market with fees affecting the effective break-even. On the same weather event, those platforms can diverge mainly on displayed odds format, not on the underlying temperature risk.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast shifts that determine whether a late-morning or early-afternoon spike clears the relevant range, plus any change in onshore flow, humidity, or rainfall around the airport. South Korea has also been running hotter in recent summers, with reporting noting record-breaking heat in 2024 and a broader long-term rise in heat-wave days, which supports the idea that low-probability weather tails are no longer as remote as old climatology suggests.[1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.