Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, Seoul will experience its early-summer peak heat, with the Incheon International Airport Station recording the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows June daytime highs in Seoul typically range from 19°C to 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching 28.06°C and a recorded maximum of 34.0°C on 19 June 2026[1][8][9]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not exceed the market’s upper threshold, likely because June remains pre-monsoon and rarely produces extreme heat compared to July or August[1][7].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover, as heavy afternoon downpours are common in late June and can suppress peak temperatures[3][10]. Recent reports from KBS confirm heavy downpours began on 25 June, with daytime temperatures capped at 26°C, indicating a trend toward cooler, wetter conditions that may persist into 26 June[10]. The monsoon season typically begins late June to mid-July, increasing the likelihood of rain that could limit heat accumulation[1][5].

When comparing platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets, note that Polymarket and Kalshi use implied probability (0–100%) while Betfair and Smarkets rely on decimal odds; fee structures also diverge, with Kalshi imposing KYC requirements that Polymarket does not, affecting liquidity and trader access on this specific weather market. These structural differences mean probability signals may vary significantly across books, even for identical underlying events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.