Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 11 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Bao'an International Airport, the official measurement station. June sits within Shenzhen's early summer period, when monsoon influence and subtropical positioning typically drive daily highs into the 30–33°C range, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific station, making measurement consistency the primary technical variable.

Historical June data from Shenzhen shows considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on 11 June ranged from 28°C to 34°C, with most years clustering around 31–32°C. The 0% implied probability across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or thin liquidity preventing meaningful price discovery. Kalshi's regulatory framework in the US and Polymarket's offshore structure both affect which traders can access this market; Betfair and Smarkets, operating under UK gambling licences, typically show tighter spreads on weather markets through established meteorological trader bases, though this particular date lacks the volume of major sporting events.

Traders should monitor late-May and early-June weather patterns across the South China Sea, particularly tropical system formation and the onset timing of the southwest monsoon. The China Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts roughly weekly; any official alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems would shift probabilities materially. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, giving traders access to morning forecasts but no intraday temperature data before the window closes.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.