Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for RJTT, and the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any “YES” outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the offered range.

Historical mid-July highs at Haneda typically cluster between 28°C and 34°C, with 2023 reaching 33.9°C and 2024 peaking at 32.1°C; the 0% implied probability suggests the market expects a value below the lowest bracket or an extreme outlier not yet priced. On Polymarket, the adjacent 15 July market shows 33°C at 100%, reinforcing that traders view 33°C as the baseline for this period, whereas Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets would express this as decimal odds (1.00) rather than implied probability, and differ on fees—Polymarket’s 2% maker/taker versus Kalshi’s capped 1% and Betfair’s 0% commission on winnings.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 06:00 UTC daily forecast and any heatwave advisories issued before 12:00 UTC settlement, as these directly influence the observed maximum. A recent Met Office observation for Haneda confirms current conditions are stable, but no extreme heat warning has been issued yet; if a high-pressure system strengthens over the Kanto region overnight, temperatures could breach 34°C, altering the implied probability from 0% to a non-zero value. Polymarket’s lack of KYC contrasts with Kalshi’s US-only access and Betfair’s global identity checks, affecting who can trade this weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.