World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 World Cup can still produce a meaningful number of missed penalties because the tournament now has a 48-team format, which means more matches and more opportunities for spot-kicks in open play. FIFA’s own statistical coverage shows how penalty-taking records and shootout frequency are tracked closely at World Cups, while historical tournament data underline that shootouts are common enough to matter but do **not** count for this market, so traders need to focus only on penalties in regular time, stoppage time and extra time.[5][2]

At a **4% YES** price, the market is implying that the listed threshold is still a long shot, which is consistent with the fact that even elite penalties are not routine misses and a large share of World Cup spot-kicks are converted. For comparison, Opta Analyst’s World Cup shootout data show conversion rates remain high even under pressure, and recent FIFA and beIN Sports coverage highlights that individual penalty records can move quickly when a few attempts are added, so the tail risk here is concentrated in a small number of high-leverage incidents rather than steady accumulation.[7][3]

For platform comparison, Polymarket-style pricing is easiest to read as an implied probability, whereas Kalshi and Betfair users typically think in decimal odds terms, and Smarkets quotes include a commission rather than a simple all-in spread. That matters on a niche total like this: a few percentage points of fees or a wider bid-offer can materially change the entry price, while KYC reach also differs by venue, with regulated books generally applying more explicit identity checks than crypto-first venues. Traders should watch FIFA’s match schedule, VAR and refereeing appointments, and any injury or tactical news around primary penalty takers, because a late replacement taker can alter the distribution of missed penalties without changing the headline market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.