Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at William P. Hobby Airport on 10 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders view a specific outcome as virtually impossible, though July in Houston routinely delivers highs between 85°F and 96°F, with an average of 93°F [2]. Historical extremes show 104°F recorded on 10 July 2022, indicating that single-digit deviations from the mean are not unprecedented in this window [4].

Traders should monitor the heat dome building over Texas, which has pushed temperatures above normal but kept 2026’s peak below 100°F so far [8]. Evening rain chances and scattered storms on 10 July could cap highs, while Gulf moisture influx may amplify heat if cloud cover thins [7][9]. Unlike Kalshi’s decimal odds or Betfair’s spread-based pricing, Polymarket expresses outcomes as implied probability, altering how traders interpret the 0% signal; fee structures and KYC requirements also diverge sharply across these platforms, affecting liquidity and accessibility for weather contracts.

The resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground’s recorded high for KHOU, with no adjustment for nearby stations. Given the 0% implied probability, the market likely prices in a narrow range that excludes the most extreme historical outcomes, yet climatology suggests 93°F is the median, with significant mass above 91°F [10]. Platform mechanics—such as Polymarket’s binary probability framing versus Smarkets’ odds format—will shape how traders position around this volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.