Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced sustained disruption since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Daily transit calls—measured by IMF Portwatch as arriving container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels—have remained well below the 60-vessel threshold required for "normal" operations. The market asks whether this metric recovers to historical norms by 31 May 2026, with settlement triggered immediately upon any single 7-day moving average reading of 60 or above. At 1% implied probability across major platforms, traders are pricing near-zero likelihood of full normalisation within the settlement window.

Historical precedent suggests sustained disruptions in chokepoint shipping take years to reverse. The Suez Canal blockage in March 2021 depressed transit volumes for months even after the Ever Given was refloated; the Red Sea crisis of 2023–2024 prompted permanent rerouting of major shipping lines around the Cape of Good Hope, a shift not quickly undone. Current Strait traffic hovers around 30–40 daily calls, roughly half pre-crisis levels. Kalshi's decimal odds (circa 100.0) and Polymarket's equivalent pricing reflect this structural pessimism, whilst traditional bookmakers like Betfair show minimal liquidity on such tail-risk outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track Houthi attack frequency, US Navy escort operations, and insurance premium movements as leading indicators. Any formal ceasefire agreement or significant de-escalation announcement—particularly from regional powers or the UN—could shift probabilities sharply. Conversely, escalation in the Red Sea or expansion of attacks would reinforce the low probability. IMF Portwatch data publishes weekly; the resolution mechanism is binary and automatic once the threshold is crossed, eliminating settlement ambiguity that sometimes plagues comparable transit markets on smaller platforms.

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.