Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 18.5 | 94% |
| O/U 20.5 | 93% |
| O/U 22.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 32.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Michigan O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 66% |
| O/U 34.5 | 65% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Iowa O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Michigan O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Iowa O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| Iowa O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Moneyline | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Spread -0.5 | 34% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -11.5 | 31% |
| O/U 46.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -12.5 | 29% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Iowa vs. Michigan. In the upcoming college football game between Iowa and Michigan, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $302K.
Methodology
We read Iowa vs. Michigan from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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