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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 92% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 86% Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots 76% Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots 74% Volume: $151K Liquidity: $1.2M Closes: 29 Jun 2026
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Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
92% 8% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
92% 8% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots92%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots86%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots76%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots74%
Rayan: 1+ shots71%
Casemiro: 1+ shots68%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots63%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots62%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots55%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots54%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists53%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots53%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots53%
Endrick: 1+ shots52%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots50%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists50%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists50%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots50%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots on target50%
Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists49%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target49%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target49%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target49%
Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists49%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target49%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target49%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots48%
Casemiro: 2+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target48%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target48%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target48%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target48%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target48%
Rayan: 3+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 4+ saves48%
Alisson: 5+ saves48%
Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves48%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists48%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists48%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists48%
Endrick: 1+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 2+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target48%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 3+ shots on target48%
Endrick: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target48%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target48%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target48%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target48%
Rayan: 4+ goals + assists47%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target47%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target47%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target47%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists47%
Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target47%
Alisson: 2+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves47%
Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves47%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists47%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists47%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists47%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target47%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target47%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target47%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target47%
Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists46%
Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists46%
Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists46%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots44%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots43%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target41%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals38%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target38%
Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists38%
Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists38%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists35%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists35%
Rayan: 1+ shots on target32%
Endrick: 2+ shots31%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals30%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target29%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists29%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots28%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots28%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots27%
Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists27%
Rayan: 3+ goals + assists26%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots26%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots26%
Alisson: 3+ saves26%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists25%
Rayan: 2+ goals + assists25%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots24%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists24%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots24%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots24%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots23%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists23%
Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots22%
Rayan: 3+ shots21%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists21%
Rayan: 1+ goals + assists20%
Rayan: 2+ shots20%
Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists20%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists20%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists20%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists20%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists20%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals19%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target19%
Casemiro: 1+ shots on target19%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target19%
Endrick: 3+ shots19%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots19%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots19%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists19%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists18%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots18%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots18%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists17%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots17%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists17%
Danilo Santos: 2+ shots17%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots16%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots16%
Rayan: 1+ goals16%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots15%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists15%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots14%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists14%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals14%
Casemiro: 2+ shots13%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots13%
Endrick: 4+ shots13%
Endrick: 1+ goals13%
Rayan: 2+ shots on target13%
Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target13%
Rayan: 4+ shots12%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists12%
Rayan: 3+ goals12%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target12%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists12%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots12%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals12%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals12%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots11%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots11%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots11%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists11%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Rayan: 1+ assists10%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target10%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots10%
Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals10%
Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots10%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals10%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists10%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists10%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists10%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals9%
Neymar Jr: 2+ assists9%
Rayan: 2+ assists9%
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots9%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists9%
Endrick: 5+ shots9%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals9%
Rayan: 5+ shots8%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals8%
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals8%
Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals8%
Neymar Jr: 5+ shots8%
Casemiro: 1+ assists8%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots8%
Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots8%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots8%
Casemiro: 1+ goals7%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists7%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals7%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target7%
Danilo Santos: 1+ assists7%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals6%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists6%
Endrick: 2+ goals6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals6%
Neymar Jr: 4+ shots6%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists5%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists5%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals5%
Danilo Santos: 2+ assists5%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists4%
Rayan: 2+ goals4%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals3%
Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals3%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists3%
Casemiro: 2+ assists3%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists3%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists3%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals3%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals2%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists2%
Casemiro: 2+ goals2%
Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals2%
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals2%
Raphinha: 3+ goals2%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals1%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals1%
Endrick: 3+ goals1%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals1%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 1+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to brazil vs. japan - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We read Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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Related Topics

Sports