Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 77% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 59% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 39% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 233.5 | 38% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 236.5 | 31% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 30% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 15% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 83% chance of rockets vs. spurs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $78K.
Methodology
We read Rockets vs. Spurs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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