Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 78% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 74% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 68% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 66% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 53% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 49% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 38% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 34% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 34% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 20% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Market context
The Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction market currently prices this outcome at 84% YES. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $550K.
Methodology
We read Grizzlies vs. Warriors from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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