Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 88% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 24.5 | 82% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| O/U 27.5 | 80% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| O/U 26.5 | 78% |
| O/U 29.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 30.5 | 73% |
| O/U 31.5 | 72% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 69% |
| O/U 32.5 | 67% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 64% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 63% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 34.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 35.5 | 59% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 36.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| O/U 37.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| O/U 41.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 43.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| O/U 44.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 27% |
| O/U 45.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 56.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 24% |
| O/U 46.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| O/U 65.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 47.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 48.5 | 18% |
| O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 50.5 | 15% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 52.5 | 11% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| O/U 55.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 58.5 | 5% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 61.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 3% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 3% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Broncos vs. 49ers prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25PM ET: If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If the game is postponed, this…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $5.6M.
Methodology
This page compares Broncos vs. 49ers specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
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