Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| O/U 36.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 49% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| O/U 44.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 39% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| O/U 50.5 | 24% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
The Steelers vs. Patriots prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is post…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.0M.
Methodology
We read Steelers vs. Patriots from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange: which is better for UK prediction trading?
- Betfair Exchange offers UKGC regulation, GBP settlement, and potentially tax-free winnings — but focuses on sports and politics only. Polymarket has deeper liquidity, 0% platform fee, global event coverage, and crypto/geopolitical markets Betfair doesn't offer. For UK traders: Betfair for regulated GBP sports markets; Polymarket for broader, global prediction events.
- Is Kalshi available in the UK?
- Kalshi is a US CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. UK residents can create accounts but must use USD and US payment methods. Kalshi's product range overlaps with Polymarket but with lower liquidity on most contracts. For UK traders, Polymarket typically offers better prices due to higher global volume.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2314b8a6%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Steelers vs. Patriots on Kalshi Alternative UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →