Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite historical precedents of extreme heat. This market resolves based on data from Wunderground, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026.

Historical data frames this probability as unusually cautious. On 2 July 2026, LaGuardia hit 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F[4]. Records for 3 July include a 107°F peak at LaGuardia set in 1966, alongside a 105°F record at Newark[7]. A recent warm midnight milestone saw 94°F recorded early Friday, indicating sustained thermal intensity rather than isolated spikes[2]. Such figures suggest the 0% probability may not account for the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 100°F, a threshold frequently breached in recent days.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service heat wave updates and the specific schedule for LaGuardia Airport station readings, as dependencies include cloud cover and urban heat retention effects. Fox Weather reported 100°F at JFK Airport by midday on 2 July, with both JFK and Bridgeport tying record highs for the date[5]. The divergence between platforms like Polymarket, which uses decimal odds, and Kalshi, which relies on implied probability, becomes critical here; fee structures and KYC requirements also vary, with some books offering deeper liquidity on extreme weather events while others restrict access based on jurisdiction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative UK offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.