Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle into one of several predefined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at this major metropolitan station, making it the definitive source for New York City's official daily highs. Wunderground archives these readings and provides the settlement reference for this market, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station's 30-year average high for early June sits around 77°F, though the record high for any June day reaches 96°F. Recent years have seen occasional heat waves push into the low 90s during this month, whilst cooler patterns have produced highs in the mid-60s. The 0% crowd probability currently displayed across major platforms—Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair—reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity across the full range of outcomes. Kalshi's regulatory framework in the US and Betfair's decimal-odds presentation may account for different trader participation patterns on this particular market compared to Polymarket's implied-probability display.

Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlook as mid-June approaches, which typically becomes reliable 7–10 days in advance. Atlantic tropical systems, jet-stream positioning, and high-pressure ridges over the Northeast all influence early June temperatures materially. The National Weather Service New York office issues extended forecasts that often precede market repricing; watching their official discussion notes in late May will signal whether anomalous heat or cool conditions are expected.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Kalshi Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi Alternative UK?

Zero. Kalshi Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.