Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. This specific market resolves to a temperature range, with the settlement window closing on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the offered range, likely anticipating a value near the historical average or a moderate high rather than an extreme outlier.

Historical data frames this probability against LaGuardia’s July norms, where daily highs typically range from 81°F to 99°F, with an average high of 85°F [2][3]. The all-time record for the station is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, indicating that while extreme heat is possible, it is rare and usually occurs later in the month [5][6]. Platforms diverge significantly here: Polymarket displays decimal odds and charges lower fees with minimal KYC, whereas Kalshi and Betfair emphasise implied probabilities, stricter identity verification, and higher regulatory compliance, which can alter liquidity and pricing on such weather-specific contracts.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and any sudden shifts in the regional heat index, which recently reached 99 in nearby areas [8]. A key catalyst is the potential for a record-breaking heatwave, as recent forecasts suggest dangerous temperatures are possible across New York and New Jersey [5]. While no specific announcement is imminent, the dependency on Wunderground’s final daily data means traders must watch for real-time updates as the settlement date approaches, noting that Robinhood and other alternative venues may offer different resolution sources or fee structures that impact final payouts [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative UK has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.